Research
Working papers
Notes and analysis on markets, data, and the machinery behind research that never makes up the numbers.
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01
Four ways to value one company
A methodology piece on valuing a company four ways, discounted cash flow, owner earnings, an EV/EBITDA cross-check, and a residual-income model, and why the blended range is a model estimate rather than a price target.
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02
Reading the yield curve without guessing
How to read the 10-year minus 2-year and 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spreads as a recession signal, where to get the live number, and the historical caveats that keep you from overreading it.
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03
Why language models invent P/E ratios
A concrete explanation of why chatbots fabricate financial figures, why the problem is structural rather than a lack of scale, and why sourcing rather than a bigger model is the fix.